The New Abortion Politics: How Red States Are Using Ballot Initiatives to Outmaneuver Progressives

The 2022 Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade sent shockwaves through the nation, but its impact has been felt most acutely in states with Republican-majority legislatures. While abortion rights advocates have scored some notable victories at the ballot box, their opponents are adapting and pushing back with renewed ferocity.

In Missouri and Kansas, two of the most conservative states in the country, voters will weigh in on ballot initiatives that promise to reshape the abortion landscape. These measures seem like a response to the Supreme Court’s ruling, but they are actually part of a broader strategy to outmaneuver opponents in the states where they matter most.

In Missouri, voters will decide whether to raise the bar for constitutional amendments, requiring them to secure a majority in all eight congressional districts rather than just statewide. This change would have blocked several recent ballot initiatives that were approved by Missourians. The initiative’s backers are betting that diminished summer voter turnout will favor conservative candidates and thus lead to more restrictive abortion policies.

In Kansas, voters will consider a proposal to change the way state Supreme Court justices are chosen. Currently, governors appoint justices from a list compiled by a nonpartisan commission; under this new system, they would be elected directly by the people. With Republicans outnumbering Democrats 2:1 in registered voters, this shift is likely intended to ensure that conservative and anti-abortion judges hold sway.

The irony here is not lost on abortion rights advocates like Chris Melody Fields Figueredo, executive director of the Ballot Initiative Strategy Center. “Make no mistake,” she said, “this is happening because the people have been winning on progressive issues.” This nod to reality highlights that in states where Republicans dominate, ballot initiatives are one of the few ways liberals can score wins.

The politics of abortion are complex and deeply entrenched in American society. As these ballot initiatives play out, it’s essential to keep in mind the broader context – including Republican lawmakers elsewhere who are pushing to raise the bar for citizen-led constitutional amendments. In North Dakota and South Dakota, voters will decide whether to bump up the requirement for passage from a simple majority to 60%. In Utah, they’ll consider raising the threshold specifically for ballot measures related to increasing taxes.

These efforts may seem like minor tweaks, but their cumulative effect could be significant – making it even harder for progressive activists to push through meaningful change. The stakes are high in these states, and the outcome is far from certain. But one thing’s clear: as the abortion politics landscape continues to evolve, lasting progress will require more than just clever ballot initiatives and savvy advocacy.

It will take a nuanced understanding of the complex forces at play – and a willingness to adapt and innovate in response to changing circumstances. The fight for reproductive justice has only just begun – and it will require all our strength, creativity, and determination to win.